Trick or Trade!

Currency Market News – October 26 thru 31, 2014

Trick or treat, give me something good to trade! Helter skelter mood swings are afflicting many aspects of the financial sector. Whether it be stocks, currencies, commodities, or anything in between, it appears that the markets are having a difficult time determining if it’s bulls or bears that are gaining the upper hand.

Will the bulls push through or are the bears making their move? Either way, this is the time to be in on your tech trades as you follow the market being impacted by the fundamental news and events that keep fueling volatility.

On to this weeks major market news events that will have an impact on your currency trading week.

First, for the Asian markets:

The Yen – Year over year retail sales . Will Japanese spending tighten on the heels of weak economic news? We may anticipate that this could come to fruition as we march on to the end of 2014.

Monetary Policy Statement and Bank of Japan Press Conference. It doesn’t appear that the BOJ will act now, but we may see an acknowledgement that adjustments in previous growth projections may be in order.

We may also see the Yen growing weak against your major currency pairings. A predictable trend may continue to reveal itself as the news is released later on this week.

China – At then end of this week, we’ll see the release of Chinese Manufacturing PMI that we anticipate will hold steady with the forecast hovering at 51.1.

The Kiwi – Business Confidence Measurement; we may anticipate a continuing trend of fading confidence. This is due to a teetering on policy debate that could lead to a stumble as we approach the end of 2014.

New Zealand’s Official Cash Rate and Rate Statement. We anticipate no change in the cash rate of 3.5%, until some time at the beginning of next year’s 2nd quarter. Of course, this will all be contingent on the ongoing developments in the global economy and the demand’s placed on commodity prices.

The Aussie – Quarterly PPI released later on this week.

The Euro – The results of the European Central Bank’s “stress test” will be revealed. It appears that German Banks may be on firm ground, but the same cannot be said for others such as Greece, Austria, Portugal and Italy. Judgment Day is here for the euro zone and we wait to see how the test may stress the markets.

German Ifo Business Climate – This business index looks to stay positive in spite of a sluggish euro zone. The euro is looking to grasp on to any shred of good news to boost sentiment. The German’s are feeling the impact of euro zone weakness and are not quite on board with the ECB perspective on monetary policy, but the euro is looking to latch on to any hints of optimism and German business may be the only ray of light shining.

Euro year over year CPI Flash Estimate announcement.

It’s a slow release week for the U.K., but we will be sure to see movement on your Sterling pairings based on the revelations of the ECB “stress tests” and the Euro’s reaction to how strong the major player’s can stand under scrutiny.

For the Loonie – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks. We don’t expect to hear any hints of a rate increase in the near future as things are anticipated to stay put for now.

Month over month GDP output looks to be meager and will most likely have a slight uptick from the forecast of 0%.

News events pertaining to last week’s Ottawa shooting may have a lingering impact on the loonie.

The USD – Month over month Core Durable Goods Orders that may edge up from last month’s adjusted figure of .4%.

Consumer Confidence may also be edging up as American’s look to have a cheerful face for the approaching holiday season.

The Fed Statement, Federal Funds Rate and Fed Chairman Yellen speaks. We look to see with a watchful eye if any significant verbiage hints towards a more hawkish approach on an interest rate hike that will be looming for some time in the first quarter to the middle of next year.

With Q.E. ending, will the U.S. continue to gain traction as the end of the year holiday season numbers hope to perk up?

Quarterly Advance GDP that could see a dip from last quarter’s adjusted figure of 4.6%.

Unemployment claims that are looking to edge downward from last week’s figure of $283k.

The ECB’s “stress test” may reveal itself to have a few failures, but may not be as “spooky” as the results were three year’s ago. At the same time, the news may have you doing the “monster mash” for the week of trick or treats, but expect to have plenty of something good to trade.

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