Binary Option and Forex Market News Update for 2/15/15 through 2/20/15
Kryptonite has hit the USD!
Is the strength of the USD beginning to wane so soon? Is the European Central Bank making a big “boo boo” by providing extended relief to Greece? How will this affect your currency pairings going forward for the week?
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Here we go!
With last week’s data revealing less than stellar numbers for the U.S. economy, the other major currencies are starting to gain a bit of momentum against their USD counterpart. The USD’s kryptonite of lagging job numbers and slow growth continues to peak its head around the corner. As things progress, the Fed’s will continue to exercise patience and let the domestic data, and the global numbers, dictate when interest rate tightening will or will not take place. The earliest target date appears to be mid-year, but if we continue to see signs of a stalling economy, consideration of any Fed rate hike will be later than sooner.
The European Central Bank revealed that it will provide more ELA (Emergency Liquidity Assistance) to Greece allowing them more time and more debt in hopes of striking a re-negotiated deal for their compounding debt obligation. At this point, however, it appears to be an uphill battle. The ECB is taking action to keep the euro zone economies moving forward together as a unit. But are they poising themselves to play the role of “humpty dumpty”, in having a great fall that will shatter the euro and any hopes of being put back together again?
Keep a close eye on the developments as this will surely affect all your euro currency pairings. Keep tracking the fundamental news that will keep you nimble and “in the money” on all your technical trades.
A busy week of releases dot the calendar for your major currency trades starting with the Asian session:
The Yen (JPY)– quarter over quarter Preliminary GDP, Monetary Policy Statement, Bank of Japan Press Conference.
The economic data for the Yen is not boding well. We can anticipate the continued shrinkage of GDP. With Governor Kuroda having very little Q.E. elbow room to spare, it doesn’t appear that the Yen will have sufficient support to gain any significant momentum for the time being. Besides other Asian currencies, pitted against your other major pairings, the Yen will remain meek.
The Kiwi (NZD)– Quarter over quarter Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales and Global Dairy Trade Index.
Expect the Kiwi to reveal somewhat sheepish retail numbers as it still needs work on shedding its image of reliance on China’s slowing economy.
The Aussie (AUD)– Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
If the minutes reveal insight showing the RBA as being more dovish (than even the mild surprise of the rate cut a week and a half ago), coupled with last week’s unexpected increase in unemployment, it could send the Aussie spiraling below support levels for your Aussie pairings, and in particular the AUD/USD.
The Euro – Eurogroup Meetings, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, French and German Flash Manufacturing PMI.
Insight into the Eurogroup meetings will prove to be market movers. A keen ear tuned into what the direction will be for Greece, now that the ECB has gone forward with extending relief.
Mixed in with a German perspective, that is butting heads with the ECB’s approach on handling the Greeks debt burden, we anticipate seeing German sentiment bending more pessimistic than last month’s reading. German concern about carrying the load and what will develop, between the ECB and Greece moving forward, may weigh heavy on the euro this week.
The Sterling (GBP)– Year over year CPI, three month over year Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes and month over month Retail Sales.
With stagnant inflation numbers continuing to weigh heavy we still don’t anticipate seeing the Monetary Policy Committee’s reverse its dovish position and show itself hawkish. On the other side of the coin we can’t expect the U.K. to follow suit with the current rush to cutting rates. The status quo should reign supreme just as surely as the Queen has remained on her royal throne.
The Loonie (CAD) – Month over month Wholesale Sales, month over month Core Retail and Retail Sales.
The impact of oil prices showing signs of rebounding a bit will have the sales numbers jostling to bolster the Loonie for a mild rally against your major currency pairings.
The USD – Building Permits, month over month PPI, FOMC Meeting Minutes, Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
Even though we’ve seen momentum for the USD against your other major currency pairings don’t be surprised at weakness from the USD this week. The Fed’s meeting minutes may reveal that the doves are still in charge; and are very aware of the bumpy road ahead that needs to be navigated with two hands on the steering wheel.
No super hero Fed will be able to save the day, but if job growth keeps flying high, then there’s only one more hurdle to leap. If the USD is able to rid itself of the kryptonite, known as wage stagnation, will it truly be able to boost itself into the stratosphere that can only be reached by hawks waving the stars and stripes.
Join us at SmallMoneyMadeBig.com and click on our market news event calendar for all the releases for the week that will impact your currency pairings.
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