Is it time to prey on a fall for the USD…or will going against the USD cage you in the trading zoo?
This your forex and binary option video news update for the week of April 27th thru the 1st of May 2015.
Bulls, bears, hawks and doves can have your head spinning in the middle of a trading zoo. We’ll be at it again this week with Wednesday’s Fed’s statement that should clue us in on when the they decide to bust a move on interest rates.
It will be time to gauge how the statement will be interpreted and dissected by the big market players. As June approaches, and with hawks pushing this as a trigger date for the Fed’s rate hike, plan on a “jack be nimble” strategy that will have you on the winning side no matter which way the wind blows.
Knowing when to get in to scalp profits going short or long on your quick turnaround trades will have you fist pumping to the beat of market movement or rocking in the fetal position humming a lullaby.
Quite a few speaking engagements, rate and monetary policy statements will be in play this week.
Let’s look at the Asian markets and what we’ll be paying close attention to this week:
The Kiwi (NZD) – Rate Statement and Official Cash Rate.
Trade Balance and Business Confidence data will be the day before we get the Rate Statement, but the well prepared announcements will have already taken the trending numbers into consideration.
The Aussie (AUD) – RBA Governor Stevens Speaks and quarter over quarter PPI.
A close ear on Governor Stevens’ speech may not be enough this time around, to provide us the clues needed on when a slash to the rate will be in play. Anticipate that a “wait and see” approach for the commodity-dependent economy will have the RBA sitting on the sidelines a bit longer. But it’s fair to say that it may be inevitable for the RBA to get off their arse and take their turn at the plate. Anticipate that, once again, the RBA will look to take a whack at loosening rates as a waning Chinese economy (and its Manufacturing PMI numbers) may end up to be a swing and miss for the Asian sector.
The Yen (JPY) – Monetary Policy Statement and BOJ Press Conference.
Abe-nomics and Governor Kuroda will need to revisit their approach to spurning the economy as the tricks in the Q.E. bag are starting to lose their luster.
The Euro (EUR) – Month over month German Preliminary CPI and year over year CPI Flash Estimate
Just off of the Euro meetings things aren’t looking good for the fledgling Greek economy. With the troika rapidly growing a set of penguin arms, an extended olive branch from either side and the prospects for a compromised solution are looking dimmer by the day.
The Sterling (GBP) – Quarter over quarter Preliminary GDP and Manufacturing PMI.
Will the rally on your Sterling/USD pairings continue to bounce to fresh levels? Or is it time for the rally to take a break? This week will all be predicated on the Fed’s statement as the BOE will be in “hush hush” mode approaching the May 7th elections.
The Loonie (CAD) – Month over month GDP and BOC Governor Poloz speaks.
The Loonie is poised to slip on another oil slick for the week as we anticipate seeing reprecussions on indications of oversupply rearing its ugly head and staring down the Canuck economy. On the other side of the coin, if the Fed’s take a dovish approach in their statement, a good buy for the week may still be on your Loonie/USD pairings.
The USD – CB Consumer Confidence, quarter over quarter Advance GDP, Fed Statement, Funds Rate, Unemployment Claims and ISM Manufacturing PMI.
This week, it all hangs on the arms of Lady Liberty (Yellen) and the Fed’s statement may be the “make or break” announcement for the Q2 hawks that were once hovering, but now appear to be taken over by doves at least until we hit the third quarter of the year.
The bulls will be looking to lock their horns on the market bears, but in this trading zoo it looks like the Q2 bears will be coming out of hibernation with the upper paw.
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