This week’s market news 10/12/14 thru 10/18/14
As we go through this last quarter of 2014, will we see the U.S. economy dancing with itself? Or will U.S. stock market “corrections” have the bear necessities singing their tune? Will the Aussie’s economy begin heating up and join the party? The data from weak economies in the euro zone, Asia and the like could also place downward pressure on both the USD and the Aussie. Let’s take a look at what the releases have in store for this week’s economic news events, that will have an impact on your trading week:
- China’s Trade Balance – Keep an eye on the reaction for the Aussie if we see China’s trade balance on the down side. If this is the case, we anticipate seeing downward pressure on the Aussie. Due to the export/import trade connection with resources between the two countries and how it affects the Aussie this could lead to a cooling of the hot housing market and upcoming employment figures. Also, the year over year CPI release that is anticipated to hit its forecast of 1.7%.
- For the Aussie’s – Business confidence – The interconnection and reliance on China’s resources for the Australian economy has the potential to see a fading confidence if China’s trade balance figures come in on the down side.
- For the Kiwi – The Global Dairy Trade release
- The Euro – With the German Economic Sentiment release, we will see how this will affect the euro pairings. We will also see how German opposition and political tension is affecting ECB President Draghi’s push towards Q.E. We may see a trend towards waning optimism in the German economic future as factory orders, exports and industrial output have taken a down turn. All this while the cost of living is expected to see an increase. As President Draghi speaks, take note and see if he is able to shed optimistic light over the darkening shadow of economic weakness that looms over euro zone economies.
- For the Sterling – The U.K.’s release of year over year CPI where we may end up seeing a decrease in the year over year inflation number and slightly lower than the forecast of 1.4%. Also, the Average Earnings Index and Claimant Count Change. The cost of labor appears to be, fractionally, on the rise and jobless claims are anticipated to see a fall which, in turn, signals growth in the U.K.’s labor markets.
- For the Canadian loonie – Month over month Manufacturing Sales and Core CPI figures are released, respectively. As we anticipate a contraction for shipments and factory sales from last month’s figure of 2.5% and the CPI figure could see itself with the same figure as last month of .5% in spite of the forecast figure of .1%.
- Last, but not least is the USD – With a busy latter part of the week chalked full of releases that will affect your USD currency pairings look for:
Month over month Core Retail Sales, PPI and Retail Sales -Even though we saw a drop in light vehicle sales and lower gas prices, the overall indicators should prove solid and add a bit of steam to the growing strength of U.S. economic numbers.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Once again, business conditions for the overall U.S. economy should post positive and has the potential to exceed the forecast by remaining in the twenty point plus range.
Building permits – which look to jump higher than the previous month’s figure.
Fed Chair Yellen speaks – If the stock market corrections stay in check, we may be able to extract tid-bits of cautious optimism. This will bode well towards available business opportunities that look to confirm the signs of a recovering economy that hopes to gain steam going into 2015.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – As we continue to see the U.S. economy forging ahead, we can anticipate that consumer’s confidence will be sparked for the holiday season and spilling over into the approaching new year. This may be the case as long as the mixed messages of what could be labeled as stock market “corrections” remain in check. This will have American’s happy to make snow angels throughout the U.S. winter season and beyond.
Be prepared to ski the slopes of trading success by always staying in touch with making your small money into big money!